President-elect Trump has been openly musing in his trademark style about his intentions for Canada.  What began as an economic threat to Canada in the form of a 25% tariff has evolved – or devolved – into what many correctly perceive to be a threat to Canada’s sovereignty with the suggestion we become the 51^st state of the United States of America.

As the clock ticks down to January 20^th and the second inauguration of Donald Trump, one thing is clear: whether on the matter of our economy, our jobs, our water or our sovereignty, Canadians need to think long and hard about who to send to the negotiating table.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce (CCC) released a report in November raising the alarm on the economic fallout of Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian goods entering the US. According to Stephen Tapp, Chief Economist with the CCC, Canada’s GDP would shrink by $78 billion, costing Canadians nearly $2,000 per person each year. Tapp further surmises that under such conditions, Canada’s economy would be pushed into a recession by the mid point of 2025.

Equally alarming are the potential job losses for Canada which have been estimated to be as high as 1.5 million jobs across the country.

The economic peril to Canada, with millions of Canadian jobs on the line, requires significant focus by our federal government. It also demands thoughtful planning and preparation by an experienced team.

Canadians should take heed with the Conservatives’ plan for dealing with this US threat. Recent polling reveals that 20% of Conservatives support Canada becoming part of the United States. Former Conservative candidate, Kevin O’Leary, has offered to broker a deal with Trump (on whose authority we do not know) telling a New York Post reporter that “half of his countrymen would support such a merger.” Likewise, Pierre Poilievre’s plans to try and topple the government in January – 10 months ahead of an already scheduled election - demonstrate a reckless, self-serving abandonment of Canada and Canadians at an incredibly fragile time in our relationship with the US.

Compare that to the actions of the current federal government. A team was struck ahead of the US election to map out a plan, whatever the outcome. The team is meeting regularly with the Provinces and Territories’ Premiers to ensure a unified approach to the US negotiations. And in December, a meeting was requested and granted with President-elect Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

Trump’s tariff threat stems from an ostensible desire to pressure Canada and Mexico to curb migration and drug trafficking, specifically fentanyl, at the border. It is also driven by Trump’s “Buy American” plan to help boost the American economy.

At the Mar-a-Lago meeting, the Canadian team reiterated the facts on migration and drug trafficking. Less than 1% of migrants enter the US from Canada. As for fentanyl entering the US, that figure is less than 0.1%. Notwithstanding these facts, the federal government unveiled a plan for further strengthening the US-Canada borders. Compare that to Poilievre’s hastily-called news conference where he displayed a “Fix the Broken Border” sign, an odd performance that had him defending Trump, rather than Canada.

As for Trump’s goals for an enhanced US economy, members of Team Canada were quick to make known Canada’s economic importance to the US. Trump’s proposed tariffs would come at a significant cost for American businesses, rendering US production more expensive, and ultimately, less competitive globally. Job losses and higher consumer prices are predicted, which goes directly against Trump’s purported economic agenda.

If the tariffs weren’t enough, there is another, very real, threat to Canada and that is the USA’s keen interest in our water. In the midst of the US election, many Canadians took note of Trump’s description of a large tap with a valve that could re-direct water from Canada to the US.

Canada contains 20% of the world’s fresh water and it is a precious resource well worth protecting. At a 2023 United Nations Water Summit, experts forecasted that global demand for fresh water will outpace supply by more than 40% by 2033. America, too, is running out.

Stephen Harper proved that a Conservative government can’t be trusted with Canada’s water, as he and his Cabinet introduced legal precedents that would allow foreign investors to declare propriety claims on our water. As the Globe & Mail reported: “Stephen Harper & Co. would treat water like oil or any other commodity – pump it and dump it south of the border as fast as possible with no regard to the long-term consequences.”

Canadians should not trust Pierre Poilievre – a Harper-era Conservative - to uphold water as a fundamental public trust above private and corporate interests.

As Canadians head to the ballot box this election year, the question of who will best protect the interests of Canada will be paramount. Elon Musk’s recent tweet supporting Pierre Poilievre should be viewed as a harbinger of Canada’s fate. Trump and his allies are telling us who they want -- and who they believe -- will give them the best deal. Pierre Poilievre won’t deliver us from Trump, he’ll deliver us to Trump.

After our own federal election this year – after the die has been cast – it will be too late. Let’s not deliver our future into the hands of Donald Trump.

Viviane Lapointe, Member of Parliament Sudbury